Who is the best rookie in the WNBA this season?

Caitlin Clark, the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft, has been the runaway favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award since before the season began. Meanwhile, Angel Reese, the No. 7 pick and Clark’s old college rival, was an afterthought in the Rookie of the Year discussions coming into the season.

A month into the season, Clark was still the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year at -700, per ESPN BET. Reese had been moved significantly by the oddsmakers after a strong start to the season, and her +1000 odds were up to third, behind Clark and Cameron Brink. At that moment, I felt Reese’s performance was outpacing her odds and at 10-1 she was undervalued in the Rookie of the Year race.

Since then? Both Clark and Reese have thrived.

In the last month, both have moved beyond “playing well for rookies”, and instead are among the best producers in the league overall. Both have been named All-Stars and they’ve been taking turns notching achievements that few players, if any, have ever achieved in their first seasons.

Which one is on pace to win the Rookie of the Year award now? Currently, Clark is still a huge favorite at -800, but Reese has made it a two-player race with odds of +450. Rickea Jackson is the only other first-year player even listed at ESPN BET, at +30,000.

Let’s make the case for why each should win the honor and compare each rookie season to the other ROY campaigns of the past seven seasons.

Clark has a good chance to lead the WNBA in 3-pointers made. Justin Casterline/NBAE via Getty Images

The Rookie of the Year case for Caitlin Clark

Clark is already one of the best offense-creators in the WNBA and she is rapidly picking up steam. After struggling a bit with her efficiency in her first month of the season, Clark has adjusted the way she attacks defenses during the past month. Instead of focusing on the shooting-scoring aspect of her game — difficult with the way opposing defenses had blitzed her off the dribble — she has instead leaned into her role as a distributor that warps opposing defenses and sets up great looks for teammates. The results have been remarkable.

In the last month, Clark is averaging a points-assists double-double with 18.3 PPG (44.6 FG%, 37.3 3P%), 10.1 APG (5.6 TO) to go with 7.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG and 0.8 BPG. During that stretch, she became the first rookie to produce a triple-double in WNBA history with a 19-point, 13-assist, 12-rebound effort in a comeback win over the team with the best record in the WNBA, the New York Liberty. She has dished at least 10 assists in four straight games, the first rookie to ever do so. She has already tied Tamika Catchings for the most games with at least 20 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds in a game by doing it six times. On Wednesday, Clark became only the second rookie in WNBA history to score 25 points with 10 assists and five rebounds in a game.

On the season, Clark is second in the WNBA in assists per game with 7.6 APG, trailing only veteran perennial MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas (7.9 APG). Clark is also in the mix to lead the league in 3-pointers (65 3PM), just behind fellow All-Stars Arike Ogunbowale (67) and Kelsey Plum (66). Clark’s incredible 3-point range stretches opposing defenses out of shape, opening up driving lanes for her to create looks for her teammates. And as her teammates continue to finish those assists, defenses are starting to soften their blitzing coverage of Clark, which is opening up her own scoring opportunities.

The biggest criticisms of Clark’s game are often her on-ball defense and her turnovers. On defense, while Clark does have some difficulties staying in front of the quick and athletic perimeter players of the league, she does do a good job of getting her hands on the ball with 1.5 SPG and 0.9 BPG to still yield some positive contributions on that end of the court.

On offense, the turnovers are a problem. Even during her renaissance of the past month, she has averaged almost six turnovers per game, and her 127 turnovers on the season are well ahead of the second most in the league (Alyssa Thomas, 84). Clark is doing an excellent job creating offense against blitzing defenses, but she has to do better at limiting the giveaways.

Reese is proving to be double-double machine as a rookie. Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

The Rookie of the Year case for Angel Reese

While there had been some thought that Reese’s interior game wouldn’t translate from the collegiate level to the pros, the exact opposite has proven true. Reese has owned the paint at both ends of the floor already and, much like her rival, has accelerated her dominance after a slow start as she has gotten completely acclimated to the WNBA game.

Early on, Reese had trouble finishing her shot in the paint and was more of a position-defender than a possession-ender on defense. But in the last month, Reese has had a renaissance with averages of 16.1 PPG (47.5 FG%, 79.6 FT%), 14.0 RPG (4.6 ORPG, 9.4 DRPG), 1.8 APG (1.7 TO), 1.3 SPG and 0.7 BPG.

Reese has grabbed double-digit rebounds in 15 straight games, dating all the way back to June 1. She has the longest stretch of consecutive double-doubles (14 and counting) in WNBA history, beating out Candace Parker’s 12 straight across the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Reese is one of four WNBA players averaging a double-double this season, joining MVP front-runner A’ja Wilson, Dearica Hamby and Napheesa Collier.

Reese now leads the WNBA with 11.9 RPG, ahead of Wilson’s 11.3 RPG. And her rebounding prowess comes at both ends of the court. Reese’s 99 offensive rebounds are nearly 1.5 times as many as second-place Ezi Magbegor (65 offensive rebounds), and her offensive rebound percentage of 15.9% leads the WNBA. But Reese has also cleaned the defensive glass, and her 27.1 defensive rebound percentage is fourth in the league behind Wilson, Hamby and Kiah Stokes.

The biggest criticism of Reese’s game early on was her struggles to finish at the rim, as she shot only 34.6% from the floor in her first 10 games. Some of her critics argued that her rebounds were mainly off her own shots and therefore not as valuable. But Reese has gotten much more efficient as a scorer, increasing her shooting percentage to 47.5% over her past 11 games, while simultaneously raising her scoring volume as well.

Reese has also really increased her rim protection of late. She ranks 10th in the WNBA on the season with 1.6 SPG, but entering July had only two blocked shots in her first 17 games. That has changed this month, and Reese now has seven blocked shots in four July games while averaging 1.8 BPG and 1.8 SPG during that stretch.

Aliyah Boston’s standout first season earned her Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. AP Photo/Darron Cummings

Best ROY seasons of the past decade according to Win Probability Added

The ESPN analytics team’s statistic Win Probability Added (WPA) distributes the credit of each play among the players on the court using a win probability model. The WPA can be calculated live, but will differ from postgame WPA after necessary adjustments to compare across games. For example, a back-and-forth game that comes down to the wire will have significantly more win probability than a blowout.

This season, the top-five players according to WPA line up very well with the top MVP candidates: A’ja Wilson (4.09 WPA) leads the league, followed by Breanna Stewart (3.35) , Napheesa Collier (3.05), Jonquel Jones (2.85) and Alyssa Thomas (2.42).

Reese leads all rookies with a 1.85 WPA score, 10th in the entire WNBA. Clark ranks 25th with a score of 1.23, the only other rookie in the top 50.

The win probability approach also gives us the framework to compare Reese and Clark to rookie seasons from the past. We have WPA data back to the 2018 season. During that span, we have WPA data for 126 different WNBA rookies. The top 5 rookie WPA scores for the season were Aliyah Boston (3.75 WPA in 40 games, 2023), Napheesa Collier (3.14 WPA, 35 games, 2019), A’ja Wilson (2.74 WPA, 33 games, 2018), Ariel Atkins (2.2 WPA, 38 games, 2018) and Shakira Austin (1.93 WPA, 38 games, 2022).

Top WNBA Rookie Seasons

Reese’s 1.85 WPA would currently rank 6th of all 126 rookies back to 2018, while Clark’s 1.23 would rank 10th. But consider, WPA is a cumulative stat and both Reese (21 games) and Clark (23 games) have accomplished their scores with half a season to go. And both have increased their pace significantly as the season has gone along, suggesting strongly that in the wins added model, Reese and Clark could both be on their ways to producing the top-rated rookie seasons of the past six seasons.

Why all the betting value is on Reese

Clark has proven herself to be a very worthy Rookie of the Year, and if she continues her pace from the past month her play would be worthy of MVP consideration in some seasons. But Reese has been equally as impressive on both the season and in the last month, becoming more dominant in the paint at both ends of the court.

Clark may in fact have the best chance to win Rookie of the Year, but with odds of -800 there is no practical benefit to betting on her to win. You would have to bet eight units for every one unit you could win.

Meanwhile, Reese is turning in a season that would win the Rookie of the Year just about every season with a strong argument she should be the front-runner over Clark this season as well. But Reese for Rookie of the Year has a lot more juice at +450, meaning you could win 4.5 units for every unit bet. To put it on the same scale, an equal bet would yield 36 times more winnings for Reese than on Clark.

Clark is in the midst of a rookie season for the ages and has many awards and accolades on the horizon. Perhaps even the Rookie of the Year award she’s still favored for. But for futures bettors, there is really only practical value in one candidate: Angel Reese.